Will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?
George Magnus's Uprising looks at the the world economy in the wake of the most destructive financial crisis since the 1930s and asks if the consensus view about the shift in global power to emerging markets generally, and to China particularly is as robust as it thinks it is. Magnus, a renowned economist, credited with predicting the financial crisis in early 2007, is Senior Economic Adviser at UBS and a frequent contributor to the Financial Times, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC and other media outlets. In Uprising, he explains the effects that the financial crisis is having on the major emerging markets, and why they will be as challenged and threatened as their richer, Western partners.
Published October 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
As Senior Economic Adviser to UBS Investment Bank, George Magnus has occupied a front row seat as events have challenged financial systems around the world.
Widely credited with having identified the trigger points leading to the financial crisis and its aftermath, his opinions and predictions are keenly sought.
His first book, The Age of Aging (2008) considered the economic and social consequences of rapid aging. His new book, Uprising, looks at emerging markets in the wake of the crisis.
This website gathers together many of George Magnus’s pieces since 2007 and offers an opportunity for feedback.
George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession.
Author: Josephine Moulds
First Published: 03/11/2008, The Daily Telegraph ©
George Magnus: the man who predicted the sub-prime crisis would lead to recession
Last March, when US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was busy reassuring the world that he for one was not concerned about global market gyrations, Magnus wrote a paper that now seems eerily prescient. As senior economic adviser to UBS, he suggested that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis could cause the end of the credit cycle “with potentially systemic economic consequences”.
Liquidity could dry up, exposing the stratospheric levels of debt in the system, with knock-on reactions in complex financial asset structures and prices. Financial institutions, he wrote, could put a freeze on lending, prompting a recession that would give rise to more defaults, a downturn in the credit cycle and a negative feedback loop with the economy.
So, how does it feel to forecast the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s? “I’d like to have predicted something really nice,” … view article