First published: SOAS China Institute 24/08/2021
Mao Zedong waged war,Read more →
In Red Flags, I consider the threats to China’s continued economic rise, but specifically in the context of the governance system under President Xi Jinping. China, as is well known, has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, and while its core economic challenges are not unique, they are many, and have gathered at a critical moment in China’s development.
In the book, I examine four key traps that China must confront and overcome in order to thrive: debt, middle income, the Renminbi, and an ageing population. Looking at the political direction President Xi Jinping is taking, I argue that while we cannot guarantee that autocratic methods won’t be successful, Xi’s authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country’s economic aspirations.
The book also investigates the potential for and possible outcomes of conflicts over trade, China’s evolving relationship with Trump, the country’s attempt to win influence and control in Eurasia through the Belt and Road initiative, and the key areas of disengagement with the West: technology and international relations.
George Magnus’s Uprising looks at the the world economy in the wake of the most destructive financial crisis since the 1930s and asks if the consensus view about the shift in global power to emerging markets generally, and to China particularly is as robust as it thinks it is.
Magnus, a renowned economist, credited with predicting the financial crisis in early 2007, is Senior Economic
Adviser at UBSand a frequent contributor to the Financial Times, BBC, Bloomberg,CNBC and other media outlets.
In Uprising, he explains the effects that the financial crisis is having on the major emerging markets, and why they will be as challenged and threatened as their richer, Western partners.
This book started life as a couple of research projects that looked at the financial and asset market implications of demographic change. It became increasingly apparent that the footprints of demographic change were everywhere, and not just in economic and financial spaces.
They can be found in the discussions and debates we have (and will have) about immigration, family structures, pensions and retirement, work and education, globalisation, religion in a secular world, secularism in religious countries and communities, and global security.
They can also be found in the heat of the current economic and financial turbulence. We are dealing with a cyclical slump in the economy, structural change in the way the world works, and a generational shift as the baby boomers begin to head off into retirement, and as Generation X steps up uncomfortably to fill the shoes that are better suited to the next internet generation.
Revised versions of some of the Ralph Miliband lectures on the crisis of global capitalism and the restructuring of the world order that were given at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) between September 2009 and August 2011.
First published: Polity Press,Cambridge, UK, 2013