First published: The Wire China, 09 March 2026
This year’s National People’s Congress in China has taken place against a troubled international economic and geopolitical backdrop. The fighting in Iran, a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, and the shipping freeze in the Straits of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which China gets over half its oil imports — has already put significant elements of the government’s largely sanitized economic thinking and forecasts at risk: not least for exports, which have been a key growth driver.
The new 15th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2026–2030) is predictably optimistic as it parades the government’s industrial policy and self-reliance priorities. Yet, the combination of a fractious external environment and stubborn structural problems at home beg the question as to whether the government’s messages for the year ahead, and over the plan period, count as confident — or cavalier. Read on…..https://www.thewirechina.com/2026/03/09/chinas-best-laid-plans-hit-reality/
