Guidelines and faultlines
First published: Council on Geostrategy, Observing China, 23 March 2026
At the National People’s Congress (NPC) earlier this month, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) set out its economic goals for 2026, and for the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) – 2026-2030. The customary reports and speeches, presented after protracted and detailed drafting, are tightly scripted. It is not surprising therefore that barely a week after the outbreak of hostilities surrounding Iran, some of the messaging at least appears anachronistic.
There were no formal references to the aggravation of geopolitical tensions, and the challenges to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) interests in the Middle East. There was no mention of the important economic threats that the PRC could face in the coming year regarding energy security, the significance of exports to the rest of the world, and the impact of higher cost inflation on under-pressure consumers. No one acknowledged that the CCP’s best-laid economic plans could be blown off course by a long and costly conflict, or how important it was for Beijing to prepare for such risks. Instead, the content of the NPC and the new plan, as one would expect, had a predominantly domestic, Pollyanna-ish focus. Read on…..https://www.observingchina.org.uk/p/chinas-national-peoples-congress-2026-and-the-economy?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=g2&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
