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Has the global economy turned?

First published: Prospect 29/05/2018

At the beginning of 2018, there was a distinct and welcome mood of optimism about the prospects for the global economy. IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld noted positive surprises in China and in advanced economies, including in Europe. He was by no means alone in framing a consensus articulated also by banks, global consulting firms and governments. Your scribe wasn’t so sure as you can see here, here, and here. As we approach the half-way stage of the year, the consensus has become rather more sober. Has a synchronised global recovery become a desynchronised and faltering expansion? Read on ….