Written just before the elections on 11th January, in which President Tsai scored a stunning victory, this asks what happens next?
The fallout from the US-China trade battle and the collateral geo-economic disruptions are threatening global economic stability. G20 members meeting in Japan this month need to address the risk of a crisis. The US and China must call off the trade dogs of war – and quickly
Both sides should step back and seek sectoral and industry specific deals
-China is under pressure from Washington to liberalise in ways that are uncomfortable
-Liberalisation has consequences for the Communist Party to which it is strongly opposed
-But China’s economic slowdown and domestic pushback are edging it closer to a deal
Don’t believe the hype
America’s new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada contains two provisions – limiting currency manipulation and trade with a ‘non-market economy’ – drafted with China in mind, and could be used as a template for future accords