Don’t believe the hype
US Treasuries unlikely to remain below 3% for long
Peak in bond yields coincides mostly with that in the Federal Funds rate
America’s trade confrontation with China is a sign of the new Cold War
The first salvos in a trade war have been fired, but whatever happens next, China and the US are set to have a much more adversarial relationship
The stock market’s historic fall was likely noise—the real story is the growing US deficit
This is the worst possible time for unfunded and ideologically-driven tax cuts. The Republican fiscal wreckers have learned nothing
US economy is doing fine – but headwinds are building
US economy has started 2018 in fine fettle, but that just makes us complacent about the inevitable recession that will followUS
As Janet Yellen stands down, a crisis is coming for the US Federal Reserve
We will miss her, more than perhaps most people think currently. For, as I have pointed out here before, the crisis she would normally have managed will now fall to her successor.