First published: Engelsberg Ideas, 02 April 2026
Benjamin Franklin is credited with saying that the only two certainties in life are death and taxes. With the backdrop of a third Gulf War, we might add the only other certainty: surging energy prices and restricted supplies of other commodities will curb global growth and world trade, possibly causing a recession, and exacerbate cost-of-living concerns. The longer the war persists and the greater the damage to energy installations, the bigger the stagflation impact.
Asia and Europe will probably be worst affected, as energy price and quantity effects compound. Fuel rationing has already been introduced in Indonesia, for example, while refined products such as jet fuel and diesel are potentially in short supply. The hike in imported inflation will aggravate so-called ‘terms of trade effects’ and pull down growth for these regions. This applies to China, too….. Read on …..https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/why-the-war-in-iran-is-not-a-gift-to-china/
