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Emerging markets: Can China avoid a crash landing?

First published: Prospect, Issue 194, 24/4/2012

China is in the throes of its most important leadership change since Deng Xiaoping came to power over 30 years ago. Before taking office, Deng was reported to have told a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) conference: “I don’t care if it’s a black cat, or a white cat, so long as it’s a cat that catches mice.” His point was that to escape poverty and build a new economy, China had to change, and embrace “the market.” China’s new leaders will make choices about political and economic reform that are no less important. Their decisions will impact the chances of avoiding a sharp slowdown in the next two years, but more importantly, they will determine China’s economic and political path for at least a decade……more