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G20 Alert: The Trade War Gets Existential

First published: Asia Global Institute 13/06/2019

It is no exaggeration to say that the escalation of the trade war has put the likelihood of a new global recession triggered by the two largest economies and the integrity of the world’s trading and commercial systems center stage at the G20 Summit in Osaka at the end of this month. In a statement, G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Fukuoka on 9 June acknowledged that “trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified”, pledging to address those risks and take any necessary action. Yet, whether Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet on the summit sidelines as they did in Argentina last year and try to restart negotiations may depend as much as anything on whether they now think they have crossed an existential Rubicon, and each wants the other to back down. Read on….