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George Magnus

Economist and Author

George Magnus

Economist and Author

Mired in political uncertainty, will the economy now stall?

By George Magnus Posted on June 19, 2017November 16, 2017 In Europe + UK UK, UK election 0

First published: Prospectmagazine.co.uk, 12/06/2017

Growth could be substantially down by the end of 2017—with the potential figures for 2018 scarier still

If you thought last Thursday morning you knew about the UK’s political landscape and its impact on the economy, you’d have been up the creek without a paddle when the exit poll came out at 10pm. For Britain’s economy now is, to use Tony Blair’s phrase, like a kaleidoscope: all the pieces are in flux. We can only guess how and when they might fall. It’s a cliche that business and markets don’t like uncertainty, but for good reason. Unfortunately, uncertainty is all we have now and for the foreseeable future. The economy had a poor start to the year, picked up a bit in the spring, but will now slow down to an anaemic rate at best. The longer political uncertainty and inertia continue, especially over Brexit, the more likely the economy stalls by the turn of the year.

You could tear your hair out, imagining political scenarios. The May government has reached an arrangement with the DUP for now, but the Conservative party will surely replace May soon and its MPs will want to try and avoid another election this year, and for as long as possible in 2018. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act provides for an election either if the government fails to win a vote of confidence or if it is overturned by a two thirds majority. But many things could turn out differently….Read more:

Photo by Olu Eletu on Unsplash
previously

previously

Why Brazil’s economy is all going nuts again
up next

up next

This mini-inflation scare pales in comparison to the Brexit shambles

About

George Magnus

George Magnus

George Magnus is an independent economist and commentator, an Associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and an adviser to some asset management companies.

He is a regular contributor to the Financial Times, Prospect Magazine and other written media, and appears regularly on BBC TV and radio, Bloomberg TV and other outlets.

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession."

- Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph

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