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What China’s Economic Data Says About a U.S. Recovery: Nothing Good

First published: Barron’s 17/03/2020

In the new world of coronavirus, life moves quickly.

A month ago, with U.S. equity indexes at record highs, there were but few references in the U.S. media to the virus in China, in some other countries, and on cruise ships. By this week, with equity markets pausing momentarily, having slumped by 30%, there is 24/7 coverage of a pandemic that has put nation after nation into lockdown and quarantine. The economic consequences are going to be surprisingly ugly, with U.S. gross domestic product likely to record a double-digit annualized decline in the April-June quarter and a recessionary year pretty much baked in the cake. Read on….