First published: Prospectmagazine.co.uk, 24/10/2016
For once, they favour the Democratic nominee
2016 has often seemed like a slow, relentless march to a populist and nationalist dystopia in the UK, Europe and the wider world. In two weeks, American voters will have the opportunity to take us off-route, or propel us further along it. The US presidential election is unquestionably the most important global part of the narrative unfolding before us. We weigh these things up in different ways as political and social scientists, economists, historians, business people, or mere citizens. But financial markets also have their own peculiar way of judging the outcome. And what they are saying is both surprising and perplexing. It will be important for the rest of us too because of the secondary impact on, for example, the UK and global equity markets, and currencies.
The raw material comes from a recently published study by Justin Wolfers at the University of Michigan, and Eric Zitzewitz at Dartmouth College. They delved into the bowels of prediction, stock and other markets after the first Clinton-Trump presidential debate on 26th September, and then again after the release of the Access Hollywood video-tape eleven days later, to try and evaluate what financial markets think about the 58th presidential election….Read more:
